Rasmussen has new poll data out today which answers a big question here of late:
Why is Obama moving to the center?
Personally, I believe Obama isn't actually moving to the center. His centrist policies on display the last two weeks are not new policies but rather the moderate side of the candidate in full display. And today, Rasmussen shows that this message is actually breaking through. This is significant because while the topline numbers remain essentially unchanged in the head to head, the underlying dynamics are changing in a way that gives Obama sure footing heading into the high negatives season, potentially limiting the eventual impact of the coming 527/GOP/McCain negative onslaught.
The polling also may indicate that Obama's Centrism advertising is starting to pay off, while it runs head to head with McCain's Maverick/Pseudo-Enviro advertising.
Are these the first signs that Obama is winning the ad wars?
During the Primary campaign season, Obama was viewed as politically liberal by an ever-increasing number of voters that grew to 67% by early June. However, since clinching the nomination, he has reversed that trend and is now seen as liberal by only 56%.
Twenty-two percent (22%) characterize the Democrat as Very Liberal, down from 36% early last month.
McCain's Very-Conservative number is shifting fast as the Maverick brand tarnishes
McCain similarly has been seen as politically conservative by more and more voters, also hitting 67% a month ago, but he is still viewed that way by 66%. While19% saw him as Very Conservative in early June, that figure now has risen to 28%.
A big reversal swing in the "Moderate" perceptions
The Democratic candidate is viewed as a political moderate by 27%, up from 22% three weeks earlier, while McCain is seen as a moderate by 23%, down from 26% in the survey at the beginning of June.
The move has been localized with Women voters
Obama made big gains during the month among women voters, 29% of whom rated him Very Liberal June 7-8 but only 20% did so by June 28-29. All of those numbers shifted to the Moderate column, with 29% of women rating the Democrat that way by the end of the month as opposed to 20% in early June. For McCain, just the opposite is the case: 26% of women voters viewed him as a moderate in the June 7-8 survey but by June 28-29 that number had fallen to 22%.
Independents are recognizing the moderation as well
Also, Obama has made gains among unaffiliated voters who are key to the outcome of the election. Where 28% viewed the Democrat as Very Liberal in early June, only 21% felt that way by the end of the month. For McCain, again the opposite is true. Rated Very Conservative by 24% of unaffiliated voters in the survey June 7-8, that number was up to 29% by June 28-29.
Why 6/20 you may ask?? That seemed to be the dip point, shortly there after his numbers inched back up. On 6/19 afterall, Obama unveiled this national ad, which seems to be having an effect.
It remains to be seen how and where this motion ultimately affects Obama. It's worth noting, as Rasmussen does, that as the campaign season progressed in 2004, John Kerry's "Liberal" numbers increased from the mid 30's in January to the mid 50's in November, leaving him a challenge to overcome which didn't happen.
Obama seems at least at this point to be more successful at capturing the middle while taking some of that precious ground away from McCain. This perhaps explains McCain's new advertisement today, which is overt in its attacks on Obama's message of Hope and Change, while trying to force feed the Maverick image. It's worth noting that the Ad is also airing in Mississippi and Virginia among other Red states.
Lastly, I'd like to highlight some important points that everyone should be aware of when answering the question
Where is Obama's lead coming from?
The key difference between 2004 and 2008 is the huge party ID favor Obama has advantage with. Having the larger base to count upon this election season, with Obama being successful in splitting or capturing a bare majority among the moderates/independents, the base and this faction can prove to be the decisive coalition needed for victory in November.
So the next time we freak out about Obama's "Move to the Center" realize that at least at the moment, it's politically effective and smart politics... This is proven when one delves into the Crosstabs of Rasmussen which aren't usually published. With leaners, the race has been static for a month at Obama 49%, McCain 44%. This lead can be better characterized however as derived from a lead amongst Moderates than just amongst Independents. Here's why:
Preferences by Party:
Democratic-
McCain: 13%
Obama: 81%
Republican-
McCain: 83%
Obama: 14%
Independent-
McCain: 46%
Obama: 42%
Note Obama is losing Independents here but winning overall. Here's how, Preferences by Ideology:
Liberal-
McCain: 11%
Obama: 85%
Moderate-
McCain: 32%
Obama: 59%
Conservative-
McCain: 74%
Obama: 19%
You won't see Obama's massive lead amongst Moderate reported much because it cuts across every media Meme available; and the fact that Obama nearly doubles his get amongst Conservatives vs. McCain's get amongst Liberals is also significant. If that number holds/expands, Obama wins in November. And that's the danger of appearing increasingly liberal. Moderation, as evidenced by the poll shifts, is likely the best way to hold this advantage.
UPDATE: Chris Bowers notes correctly that there has been no significant move in the poll numbers. This is very true, as the polling has remained static, which I acknowledged above. I contend rather in this diary that Obama was on shaky ground at one point not long ago, with a substantial amount of support coming from Moderates and even Conservatives, as evidenced by my polling illustration, who already viewed Obama as liberal. Those voters may be sensitive to the charge, which will be made eventually, that Obama is a Leftist Radical. People like Pat Buchanan expound that this is the only charge against Obama that will work; rather than the recent charge by the GOP that Obama is a typical Politician carrying party lines. I agree with Pat. When Obama has max support among Democrats and Liberals, his margin of victory is Moderates and even some Conservatives. If McCain were to get back that 8% imbalance among Conservatives, then he'd likely take the lead again, or at least tie. Hence, the moderation is necessary in order to create cognitive dissonance when the message becomes the Hannity line that he's a Radical Liberal...
UPDATE II:Chris Bowers now directly addresses this diary and points out again that Obama's changes in favorables don't necessarily correlate with changes in voters preferences by citing an example of Clinton's late May polling. I think that's a flawed example citing what may be a good arguement, one I don't agree with. As evidenced by the Unity bounce, much of it derived via strong Clinton states, there was a time in late May when Clinton was performing better vs. McCain due to Clinton voters telling pollsters they'd vote for McCain rather than Obama. That's since changed now that we have Unity.
UPDATE III:Poblano essentially boils down my longwinded points above about tactics and suring up voters with this excellent point in his update
(iii) Finally, as I argued last week, I don't think this is necessarily a strategy designed to maximize one's number of electoral votes, but rather one's chances of winning the majority of them. This is a risk-averse maneuver, designed to blockade McCain from certain tactical options that he might have wished to take later on.
I also agree completely that the upside of this poll movement has not entirely played out. Whether it proves to be a defensive sandbag or an offensive force, as Bower is looking for and Poblano has picked up in the Super Tracker, is all yet to be seen.
Elections tend to break in July/August, as Gallup finds out clearly and this could be the groundwork first necessary before the break occurs, which I'm inclined to believe is the way that Chicago views things. With McCain advertising in Mississippi Virginia today and Obama renting out Invesco, the direction of the coming eventual break is beginning to look certain...
If we win this year, the election polling will follow similar years such as
While Bowers is looking for more topline movement, which I am hoping will occur sooner rather than never, it's worth noting the pattern this election may take in historical terms, and how today's polling data lays the ground work for eventual shifts made possible by Obama's perceived Centrist moderation within the broader political body.
