Skoolin' ABC: Obama is a 2:1 Favorite w/ 4% Lead!

ABC News was trying to be oh so cute pushing the Horse Race with this opening

If everything is so good for Barack Obama, why isn't everything so good for Barack Obama?

Now, allow me to Skoool ABC News and answer that question.

First off, your reporting of your poll is too cute by half... You included this in your Print Edition to scare the Obama Readers

But failed to mention this

Going back to 2004, Mark Blumenthal skoooled you

The following list -- which comes from the RealClearPolitics listing from 2004 -- shows that the Post/ABC survey was the only one conducted during the latter half of the month showing Kerry with even a "numeric" lead. The average for the month had Bush ahead by a single percentage point (45% to 44%).

Now that your agenda has been exposed, shall we turn to the trusted Poblano for today's latest discussion in where the polling landscape lays...

Short Version: Obama is the 2:1 Odds Favorite as of today
Long Version:

An odd day of polling, but one attention-grabbing result dominates the rest. That is from Ohio, where Public Policy Polling has Barack Obama ahead by 11 points. While Public Policy Polling developed a reputation as being somewhat Obama-friendly in the primaries, its track record is fairly strong, and its prior Ohio poll -- taken way back in March -- had shown McCain ahead by 8 points. As Ohio is probably the single most important state in this election (it's by no means the only important state, but it's pretty darned important), this result is enough to drive Obama past the 67 percent threshold in our overall electoral projection; we presently have him as about a 2:1 favorite to win the election.

There are also a series of national polls out, all of which have consolidated in the area of Obama +4, exactly the popular vote margin that we attribute to him based on the state-by-state polling results.

Honestly, go to this link again... I can't recall when I've ever seen such harmony on RCP Averages.

Poblano again takes it to close

The only way that you can come to that conclusion is if you cherrypick results. There have been a few dozen polls released since Clinton conceded the primaries, and our methodology extracts an average bounce of about 4 points between them. Four points is not so large that some individual polls won't show a bounce, particularly if the bounce is concentrated in particular states and regions. But bounce Obama has, and the longer Republicans remain in denial about it, the less time they'll have to catch up.

Four Points is Four Points, however the Four Points Obama holds, when broken down State by State

Show an Incredible Result

And the Landslide number is creeping up to the 1:3 chance!

And that's before the Kentucky SUSA Poll gets mixed into the fray.

Obama is consolidating his Strength where Clinton did best; I'd love to see a Texas Poll honestly... and another FL and PA poll...

Instead, we get the ABC Poll which probably freaked out many Kossacks today with their selective reporting.  

Consider that now Debunked.